What is a Winner in Wingify? – Wingify

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Note: This article covers SmartStats, Wingify’s Bayesian-powered statistics engine, which applies only to:

Accounts on the non-Data360 framework, and
Campaigns created before an account was migrated from non-Data360 to Data360.

For new campaigns (created after migration) or all campaigns in accounts created directly on the Data360 framework, refer to Campaign Reports in Data360, Wingify’s upgraded statistical engine that offers deeper insights and improved control on statistics.

Wingify calls a variation a Winner when its potential loss is below the threshold of caring and its Probability to be best is greater than or equal to 95%. The probability to be best is typically the probability of a variation outperforming all other variations to be the best. Wingify declares only one Winner.

Note: To declare a variation as a winner, Wingify requires a minimum of 25 conversions per variation, 1500 visitors for the test, and the test must be running for at least a week.

How Wingify Calculates the Threshold of Caring

The threshold of caring is the magnitude that decides whether to consider a variation to declare a Smart Decision/Winner or not.

The threshold of caring = Current conversion rate * multiplier * 100

where the multiplier is 0.001 for revenue goal and 0.0075 for non-revenue goal

NOTE: We do not ask for these details, we compute them based on the first week's data.

In the current reporting system, the Conversion Rate of a variation is taken from the test report. Say it is 2.5%, the threshold of caring will be: 0.025 * 0.001 * 100 = 0.0025. Hence for the variation to be a winner, its potential loss must be below 0.0025, and the Probability to be best is greater than or equal to 95%

NOTE: If the threshold of caring for any test is > 1%, we will set it to 1%, and if the threshold is <0.001%, we will set it to 0.001%.

NOTE: The calculations of the threshold of caring was changed in September 2019. The formula earlier was- The threshold of caring = Current conversionrate * Expected lift in conversion rate * multiplier * 100 where multiplier = 0.01 for High Certainty mode; 0.075 for Balanced mode; and 0.2 for Quick Learnings mode and current conversion rate and expected lift in conversion rate were accepted from the user.

When is a Winner Retracted in Wingify?

Once a variation has been declared as a winner, the decision will be reversed if the Probability to be best is below 90% or if the absolute potential loss is greater than 105% of the threshold of caring. Whenever the variation's probability to beat baseline or the potential loss breach the threshold, the Smart Decision is retracted.

NOTE: Previously, the Smart Decision was retracted when the absolute potential loss of the variation declared as Smart Decision was > 1%. This logic was ineffective in scenarios where there was a marginal difference in the conversion rate of the variations.

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